I dont' agree. If Intel cuts off DEC, Intel will fill the sales with other OEMs [they are oversold anyway]. DEC will fill SOME of the supply with AMD, which will help AMD. But DEC can't substitute AMD in a number of critical applications, including notebooks, SMP servers, and products for customers who are CPU sensitive [which might be more than half of DEC's market]. DEC's sales will fall substantially, and the business will go to other Intel OEMs, with Intel ultimately not suffering at all.
My guess: Intel will cut off DEC at end of 3rd quarter. Intel as the "Chip Nazi": "No Deschutes for You !" (apologies to Seinfeld)
After the contract expires, no Pentium MMX, Pentium II or Merced, either.
The suit is Intel's way of serving notice. I don't think it's the end, I am sure that Intel is looking for violations of INTC patents by DEC and will find some, maybe dozens, maybe hundreds. I expect one or more MAJOR patent infringement suits against DEC by INTC, but it will take six months or more to put those together, so my guess is that they are 4th quarter or later.
Today's action is a warning shot. But it is the first shot, not the last shot. DEC declared war, as much by how they did it as by what they did, and they are going to get it. |
