Kevin,
That list is a hoot. Unfortunately, I'm sure once this cycle has finished, another will start up anew. People can't help themselves - when someone promises a fast buck, enough people will listen. Its been going on for centuries.
Just look at every semiconductor cycle; better yet, Gold! Us Canuks up here are very familiar with that one...
Japan, biotechs, etc, happens all the time.
Although it does seem that this time the lunacy went beyond 'normal' limits. It was amazing, no, it was *breathtaking*, to behold the entire sell side community invent new methodologies for valuing companies, many of which had little or no hope for survival.
But lets not forget, the public ate it up. They dove in there and bought and bought and bought. They bought the dips, they bought the breakouts. They bought the plunging crashes. There was no fear, only fear of being left behind.
And an investor / trader / any human for that matter has to take responsibility for their own actions. So while the analysts may get roasted, it will be mostly because so few will look at themselves closely.
Frequently in social situations this past two years the market would come up in discussion. Never one to shy away from venturing opinions, when asked during this past year, I'd always say it was in the end game. Ugh, did I get beaten verbally! Taking some off the table, or even recognizing that the big party would end, seemed impossible for people to accept.
It reminds me of an old rock climber's saying we use when climbing unroped - 'never climb higher than you want to fall'. |
