| Dawgfan, I wouldn't have bought-and-held a highflyer like JNPR. When a stock like that shows a major topping pattern, as this one did, you bail. The implication of such a pattern is that it will be some time before that level is seen again, if ever. I bailed on tech in February and March because I didn't like what I saw back then. If you follow a B&H strategy, you need to keep an eye on fundamentals, and you need an exit strategy. For most of my buys, it's based on the stock hitting a level that I think builds in all possible good news. If a stock hit a PE of 1200, as Juniper did, and was forming a major topping pattern, I'd certainly exit longs, and maybe even consider shorts. Techs and Nets reached extremes this year that have probably never been seen before; don't assume we're going to see Nasdaq 5000 again any time soon. Value will be king for some time to come. Frankly, it always was king; back in January 1998, technology was the most compelling value in the market. Despite the sell-off, stocks like CSCO are nowhere near the value they were as recently as October 1998; CSCO would have to be cut in half to reach a similar valuation. So except for isolated cases where solid companies hit historically low valuations, like MSFT at 58 or TLAB at 42, I'm steering clear of tech in general. Broad-based values are just not there. |
