Jeff, Huei, et.al.: Actually, call me perverse but I'm watching VLNC like a hawk, hoping it gets pushed below $14. I'll be all over it like a proverbial hawk to an exposed field mouse. Be that as it may, the reality right now is given the magnitude of the roiling the market is undergoing TA is extremely hard to use.
At these extremes of market/political dynamics most market mechanisms become useless, and you're left to fly by the seat of your pants (did I mention I like flying bi-planes? Heh!). Sooooo....my pants are telling me VLNC is flying upright, but is getting shoved around by general market conditions and not because of anything fundamentally amiss with the company. So given these sort of market conditions are always short-lived (no pun intended), I'm now looking to once again establish another traders position on VLNC, below $14 if possible. I may adjust this upwards should my "pants" determine the market is stabilizing. My view, which I've maintained for some time, is VLNC is caught in a trading range. A range bounded by ~$13 to the downside (with occasional blips below this level), and ~$18 to the high (with the same occasional blips to the outside). So one can either collect long term shares at the low end and hold for the long term (end of 2001 and beyond), or play the swing. Or both! By the by, this allows for shortsters to play the inverse of this reality. So everyone wins...
Heui: You asked about the possibility of VLNC's products replacing current product lines (I paraphrase so please forgive any mis-interpretation). The answer is yes, VLNC's products could replace any number of current products, assuming they can drive down the manufacturing cost curve, etc. And it's generally assumed they're well underway in that regard. The key is the market sectors they choose to attack. The environmentally safe nature of the product, combined with its energy density and form fitting factors, imply VLNC and their licensees should do well longer term.
But for now it's all about market-wide dynamics. Dynamics which currently amount to a 7 on the earthquake Richter (spelling?) scale. Or, to use a different analogy. A market-wide train wreck is currently under way....
John~ |
