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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 219.25+0.6%11:42 AM EST

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To: Petz who wrote (20202)11/22/2000 12:43:30 PM
From: Dan3Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
Re: The P4 1.5 GHz on 0.18u has extremely little headroom, even for a 1.6 GHz part

Wow, Scumbria was very right and Paul DeMone was very wrong. Scumbria called both the IPC problem and the scaling limits.

I don't think the die size issue has been fully appreciated, either. If their process is working every bit as consistently on those 3GHZ gates as it was on the 1GHZ P3 gates, they're still going from about 200 chips/wafer to about 70 chips/wafer.

2 new FABs and a moderation in the rate at which demand is increasing will help them stay in the market share fight, but it's still going to be a tough couple of quarters for Intel.

Everybody starts fresh on .13 in 2H 2000, so they'll have another chance to catch up then. It should be easy for Intel to move from AL to CU and .18 to .13 concurrently. Meanwhile, AMD faces the challenge of a straight shrink.

:-)

Dan
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