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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.72

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Petrol who wrote (63011)	11/22/2000 10:28:02 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (4) of 99985

Something I wanted to comment upon ... but haven't had the time so far ... is that the markets haven't traded off fundamentals for quite a while. People traded stocks purely as vehicles ... and they continue to do so. However, there are a few conundrums for which I don't have an answer . Firstly .. as an example, I remember AOL's rise .. a great stock to own ...the shorts would pile in ... then Case or Pitman would announce some news and the short-covering would drive the price up. The management never missed a trick and really played havoc with the shorters. Same with many other tech stocks really... though AOL was the master at the game. Secondly, analysts. Anytime favourite stocks would get into trouble, they would upgrade it....hence more short covering. Thirdly ... new metrics were used to justify price targets ... not based on fundamentals ... but on the capability of the stock to reach the price. Well ... why not ... its all a game ... and, as I said, these things are all trading vehicles. So... the conundrum is ... why has the game stopped ??. I remember earlier in the year ... I heard one or two commentators talking of a crisis and their portfolios losing so much value. We rallied ... and I haven't heard anything this time around when its so much worse. I realise that any game of this nature is likely to stop at some stage ... but why now ... and why isn't there more squealing in the media ??. And why are analysts kicking stocks/sectors when they are already down ??. There are many ways to present arguments/pricing to keep the game going. Why aren't companies putting out more press releases to boost their stock price ??. Well .... I can't quite figure it out. It could be that all the bigger players are positioned on the short side or fully hedged, leaving the retail investor (bottom of the food chain) to hold the bag. Perhaps word was already put about during the August time frame, that it was a 'get out rally', before the excesses were addressed. In any event, am I the only one to have this Fox Muldar feeling that the excesses are being 'managed' out of the system ... and that within the financial, political & media world, there was some knowledge of what was going to occur ?? Ah ... conspiracy theories ... I love 'em Course ... it could just be a global recession .. but that would be a boring answer ..... GG Happy Thanksgiving everyone Regards Stephen

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