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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.08-3.2%Dec 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tony Viola who wrote (119119)11/24/2000 1:19:55 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Re: we'll see how much of a disappointment P4 is when it ramps faster than any chip in history

That's not a very meaningful phrase. If P4 ramps quickly enough to be a significant part of the market within the next calendar year, it can only happen if Intel's market share drops by almost half - and I don't really expect that to happen. Remember that every P4 takes the place of 3 P3s or Celerons in the production line.

Intel needs all new lithography equipment and a new copper process to move to .13, and that won't be in place to support any significant volume before the end of next year.

I suppose AMD could ramp its .13 early and supply half the market starting in Q1 if they have indeed solved the polishing problem, in which case it might make sense for Intel to move quickly to P4 and give up 2/3's of its production volume, but I don't expect that to happen.

Regards,

Dan
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