Disu: You want my thoughts? Politics or the market? Okay, I don't expect NASDAQ to find its bottom till after George Bush is certified as Prez and we get a brief rally.
Gore's shameless pandering in the Elian Gonzalez case did not pay off, but the South Florida Cuban community is out of ammunition after this one. Jeb Bush is a one-term governor and Florida moves to the Democratic column for years to come.
Somewheres, in the middle of the night when no-one's around, if you keen your ears carefully, you'll hear Ralph Nader giggling uncontrollably.
I don't think NASDAQ can break 3210 till it gets to the bottom; TA folks will look for 2500; I continually look for 2540 simply because of mathematical analyses that I've done.
Whatever rally comes and how high for December does not much concern me anymore; I will trade as it moves. I am convinced we will see 2000 by winter and 1750 in the year 2001. (an outside possibility of 1275-1310 exists).
Much of the debate about a hard bottom or soft bottom overlooks what my charts tell me; the Fed has crafted a slow-to-occur bottom. Many eyes sought the kind of capitulatory panic signal that occurred in April, but that has been avoided thus far, and I credit Greenspan for that.
Our window for a final peak is narrow; Dec 8-12 is likely to be it. With a Fed mtg the 19th and the disappointment at no easing.... followed by tax loss selling, the best we'll get is horizontal trading from the 21st on.
If he gets us past the third week of January without a capitulation, the Fed's work will be done and interest rate adjustments downward will follow at the Feb mtg.
The bigger question for next year is whether the aftermath of an exponential growth chart drop will permit the tech market much upside for several years to come. Without improvement in world economies, it is likely to be a time of vastly lowered expectations.
bigcharts.com
The next 5 years will see:
-- A severe Middle East war
-- Continuing strained relations with China, as it swallows up more neighboring turf. Satellite delivery of free internet access is the key to finishing the Cold War there.
-- with computer memories moving to online storage to facilitate the move to dumb computers and dumber appliances, privacy issues will revolve less around advertisers and more around police snooping. Perhaps a black market in hard drives will arise among the smarter appliances, which may or may not be descended from the apes.
-- George Gilder is not God but he has the right approach to the study of technological advance. That does not make him a market guru, but it can provide a few good leads.
-- Alternate energy, and biogene/medical will have periods of substantial market growth as boomers retire.
-- As solar flare activity peaks in 2-3 years, the importance of fixed point wireless will emerge.
-- A strong third party movement will occur but it won't be the Greens or the Libertarians; its tenets will be based in urban populism.
-- George Dubya will be a one-term President.
-- The nouveau slavery of the US prison system will be a major civil rights issue.
-- Poverty will continue to be treated as a criminal act.
-- People will still look at me weird.
Oh, you want evidence to support these comments? I'm sorry, all of it came to me in a holographic vision which I recorded on gallenium cornmeal microchips and buried for future generations. Then the dumb dog dug 'em up and ate 'em.
But I'd put big money on these sure things if I had any.
--Kevin, twitching & looking over his shoulder |
