Studies Predict Rapid Increase in High-Speed Access, and Reveal Net-TV Correlation
November 21, 2000
The high-speed access market will have 28mln subs by '04, with cable modems claiming 14mln and DSL counting 9.8mln, according to Dataquest.
By the end of '00, the study predicts cable modems will have 3.3mln and DSL will have 1.4mln of the 6mln high-speed subs.
Internet usage is not necessarily taking time away from the TV in consumers' HHs, according to a study from Burke and NFO Interactive that found consumers with 'Net access spend 3.8 hours/week both watching TV and being online.
As an example, the study found that 6% of Internet-enabled people who watched "Survivor" went to the Web site during the show.
From CableFAX Daily
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Seems the Dataquest "prediction" is overlooking a teeney-weeny-little problem. They claim 14 million cable modem subs by 2004. What they fail to state is that using those numbers, and an average 6% current take rate for cable data service, somewhere in about 2002 the networks reach the MSO's max comfort level w/r/t percent take-rates (roughly 18 percent). You can extrapolate this effect down the food chain to the modem suppliers and the modem silicon suppliers, but they will be the last to see (but the most adversely affected by) or admit a slowdown because they’re watching the wrong thing. This, of course, assumes no change from current user online habits and no change in the average bandwidth consumed over that time frame (which seems highly unlikely to me). If those things increase, the threshold of pain comes sooner.
And the 2001-2002 timeframe is just about the time when most MSO's claim they'll finally be completed with their 5+ years of 2-way upgrades. I'd say the MSO's have a vested interest in making sure the retail model for cable modem sales fails. They need to be completely in control of the subscriber additions and the rate they are added. The retail model loses this control, but they are obliged to appear like they wholeheartedly support it. They will find a way to make it gracefully fail. They better. The retail model for the MSO's is sort of like having every 7-11 in town selling unlimited numbers of tickets to a basketball game in an arena that only holds a few thousand. The retail model will only work for FTTH/GbE, and even if the MSO’s began deploying this now, it will not be in place in time to avoid hitting the limits. This wall is gonna be hit so watch carefully if you invest in related companies. |
