SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 327.01+2.5%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: John Trader who wrote (39973)11/25/2000 3:58:16 PM
From: brunn  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
John, for past declines the length of the decline was sometimes about a year long vs. just under 3/4 year at this time.

This probably is my biggest concern about putting more money into AMAT or other semi-equip companies at this time--that we may be sitting on dead money for atleast a few more months. In a way it has been troubling how 8 months have gone by with decreasing stock prices but increasing earnings. If the "market" is correct in predicting a downturn, how long will it take for the downturn to occur--we will then have to go through this downturn for possibly a few more months before business conditions and the stock rise. Optimistically, of course, we might see just a slowing of earnings growth as telegraphed in the last AMAT earnings conference--the problem is that AMAT historically either has dramatic earnings growth or dramatic earnings decreases.

In a way I would prefer if AMAT and others would go ahead and have huge earnings shortfalls and get on with it--better sooner than later. (What if the end of the cycle predicted in the summer of 2000 does not occur until 2002 but the stock falls for 2 years based on this prediction? It may seem ludicruous but we might have seen the stock peak well before the business peak in which case you will have to wait more than 18 months.)

Still, hopefully my chart illustrates that AMAT can no longer be considered over-valued--even if we are at the peak. Unlike many other tech favorites.

Anyway, before putting too many eggs in the AMAT basket remember we may see 30 before we see 200. However, people who bought AMAT at 8 in 1996 probably aren't too worried anymore that they saw it fall to 5.5 before going to 100 four years later.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News