d/o i agree there are a lot of great long term values out there, but i think the majority of this thread is out of the "buy and hold" mold right now, and trying to trade the trends, if you were long, both have not worked very well lately, i think there are some still looking for a "washout" capitulation day, about 400-500 points down on the naz, you can bet there would be a bunch of money come off the sideline if that would happen, i think 2500 area will hold on a closing basis, and if bush is certified tomorrow night, we have probably seen our low for the year imo, my scenario is bush gets certified sunday night, we pop hard monday, follow through drys up pretty quick, earnings warnings knock us down some, then we rally into fed meeting, if fed gives neutral bias at least, bottom is hard, and we can start getting more "long term", if fed does not move, we will see hard landing scenario and we will probably see new lows, until the fed shows they are going to reverse the tightening trend, i think you can only trade the short term trends, and be very "light on your feet"
that is my "smellvision" for tonight
good luck
ps i do have some long term holds as well (short term buys that went south faster than my stomach could stand) and i sold some naked puts a couple of weeks ago on ntap and akam that i just went ahead and took, thats what happens when your discipline weakens and you know that surely, the election will get settled "tomorrow" <g> |
