Dennis,
>>>> my read of the relationship between the technicals and outside/exogenous factors is that the latter is the fuel for the former. That is, we can use technical levels to measure the degree to which the market can absorb stress (e.g., does a stock go down on bad news, like a downgrade <<<<
Exactly, and I agree. That is why I carefully looked over the charts to see if I saw an anomoly, as already mentioned. Other than that one day that was slighty more negative than the recent, there really wasnt anything I could spot out of the norm after the election. The size of the overall pullbacks and the size of the rebounds were in sync with the norm since SEPT. Prior to the election the market was in a downtrend, and there were no technical signs of a concrete bottom forming such as a HIGHER LOW or HIGHER HIGH. If there was a HIGHER HIGH before the election and after the election a LOWER LOW was produced, then we could conclude that the election could have been the major reason for the selloff to resume, but that was not the case. Prior to the election we had LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs, and after the election the LOWER LOWs and LOWER HIGHs continued.
>>>> I want tosee how the SOX does. That's the most important tell, for me <<<<
As mentioned in the index update, the SOX is one of the important things I looking at for confirmation of direction/continuation.
Again, Im not saying that the election has no influence on the market. Its influence is strong, but not as strong and absolute as some make it out to be.
Seeya |
