Mike - I would say that your revenue figure, at least for T digital telephone, is understated.
Cable Telephony
400,000 customers x $15/month x 12 = $72,000,000 annual rev
It is interesting to note that T is stating its numbers as customers, not lines. A substantial number of customers take 2 lines of service and quite a few take 3rd and 4th lines. So I think you see where I'm going with this. In the Denver area, there is a nice package that sells 2 lines (fully featured at that) for $33.95 (plus tax and FCC line charges)- slightly higher than your $15 per month per line. Current figures out of T are that anywhere from 30% to 40% of customers who take the first line of service will take at least the second line. In some neighborhoods I've seen this second line penetration of first line customers to be upwards of 50%. T itself estimates its line penetration for traffic engineering over an entire market as 1.33 (some markets have have to adjust this upwards based on second line popularity over time).
So let's say 33% of those 400,000 customers has a second line at about $15 per month, that's an additional
400,000 x .33 x $15/month x 12 = $23,760,000 annual rev, not to mention the 3rd and 4th lines.
Add that to your previous 72 million total and you are looking at about $95,800,000 just from digital telephone and counting. At their stated goal of 500,000 customers by the end of 2000, you can plan on annual revenues from digital telephone of a whopping
500,000 x 1.33 lines x $15/month x 12 = 119,700,000 annual revenue. Almost $120 million per year.
Dare I mention that a large majority of customers buy a package that includes LD along with with their local serice to sweeten the pot? Many customers drop their separate LD from Sprint, MCI, etc. to buy the packaged local/LD package from T. Combined revenues per year for local and long distance, anyone. Then add in Mike's cable modem revenues and you are WAY over his half billion dollar revenue figure on plant that 2 years ago was generating practically zero incremental revenue.
I don't think it's time to pick out AT&T's tombstone just yet.
DT |
