any strategy for beating the market will be eventually arbitraged -- or gets priced into the equities involved....To what extent is the Gorilla Game already reflected in particular G&K-type stocks?
Good, crucial question, and one which I've thought a lot about (as have many here). There were some lengthy exchanges on similar topics back around May, I believe, so you might want to poke around in the thread archives for various opinions.
My answer is that what will be arbitraged and eliminated is any mechanical strategy. As the debates within this thread and between the thread and Geoffrey Moore have demonstrated, operationalizing (or "implementing," for those like UF who don't like the word "operationalize") the Gorilla Game is a qualitative rather than quantitative endeavor, relying on subjective judgment rather than objective and particularly numerical criteria. Moreover, it requires great discipline to stick too, which is quite uncommon.
Sooo....like Buffettesque value investing, it is theoretically possible for many to do it, but in the real world, in real time, few will be able to do it well and stick to it for a long time. Certainly the returns might not be quite as great as they were in the past, given the popularity and widespread dissemination of the basic concepts involved, but the strategy should still pay off for those who know what they're doing and stick to their last. That's why it's not enough just to read the manual, and why the day-to-day discussions on good gorilla game threads are critical supplements.
tekboy/Ares@that'sright,takeadvicefromaschmuckwho'sdown75%.com |
