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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Venkie who wrote (19726)11/27/2000 11:23:22 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
factoring in Fed cuts is ALWAYS done repeatedly, prematurely

that produces choppy bottoms
but post-election and end of IPO's should allow a rally here

some evidence displayed on CNBC just a few minutes ago:
- put/call ratio jumped up, usually contrary bullish
- down Nov usually followed by up Dec (happened 17/28 times)
- 540 new NYSE lows on Nov22nd (climax)

I dont expect the Fed cuts until more damage is done
those guys are lousy economists, dont give them credit
my guess is first rate cut is March
my guess for going to Neutral Bias is January
but in December FOMC, they will end their hawkish combative comments
they are taking heat now

in a perverse but beneficial manner, I expect Prez situation to help keep the stock market advance from getting ahead of itself and backtracking... that is good... I want a steady 4/5 updays per week for three straight weeks... two big updays for Naz would lead to a stall... not good... got some competition between older Dow and younger more muscular Naz now

as for TGvg, chicken over turkey
/ Jim
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