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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
ORCL 198.80-5.6%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: WTSherman who wrote (14921)11/27/2000 12:59:04 PM
From: Marq Spencer  Read Replies (1) of 19079
 
WT,
If your horizon is 3-5 years it doesn't matter too much whether the price is $22 or $12. You'll probably do fine. If your horizon is more like 12-18 months, I'm not so sure.

I know that what you wrote above is what most people like to believe. However, the reality is that it does matter what you buy a stock at, even over a 3-5 year holding period. Let's look at Oracle price peaks and valleys over the past three years or so:

Jul-Oct. '97 .... $6-7
Jan. '98 .......... $3
Sept. '98 ......... $3
Dec. '98 .......... $6
Feb. '99 .......... $10
Apr-May '99 ..... $5-6
Jun-Aug.'99 ..... $8-10
Mar. '00 .......... $45
Apr/May '00 ..... $30
Aug. '00 .......... $45
11/22/00 ......... $22

The reason I wanted to lay out some of the peaks and valleys is that based on when people bought ORCL they could have easily missed a two-three fold increase. For example, they could've bought in '97 for $7 or early '98 for $3. They could've bought in Feb 99 for $10 or April '99 for $5+. They could've bought in Aug '00 for 45, or last week for $22.

Also, it is important to note that someone who bought ORCL in the summer of '97 in the $6-7 range, was actually down in April/May '99 when ORCL was in the $5-6 range.

- Marq
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