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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (63200)11/27/2000 7:51:50 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Comments by Don Hays this morning.

1.) I now expect a major bottom in the second phase of the NASDAQ's bear market to be made
in the next
3-6 weeks. I have moved the first part of that projection up by one week.
2.) I expect a "post-election" bounce to continue from Thursday's low that will last 5-6 days, and
could take
the NASDAQ back up by a little over 55% of its latest plunge. To quantify, that bounce could
push it up
another 150 points from Friday's close. But the target is probably not as telling as the duration
of this
zig-zag that I mentioned in Friday morning's comment, and I do not expect that to be longer
than the 5-6
days I noted above, and maybe less.
3.) I then expect the last "PLUNGE," and I put that in large caps because I expect that to scare
the
bejiggers out of those same people I scorned in my first paragraph. This should be the last
plunge of the
"concern" phase of the NASDAQ's bear market.
4.) I'm not nearly as confident of this last item, but I think there is a real possibility that the
Federal Reserve
may cut interest rates in the wake of this last plunge that I'm expecting.
5.) Another big "if" that my confidence level is not all that high about, is the chance that the Dow
Jones
Industrial Average will not break under its October 18, 2000 low of 9975 at that time.
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