Two billion is chump change by comparison.
Charles,
I think you're missing Ken's point.
He's quoting the net figure, not the overall. They are short 376K contracts and long about 300K, accounting for the net figure he's quoting.
Maybe $10 BILLION is chump change for the commercials, but the point is they've rarely been wrong and never been this short the spoo's.
Either way you see it, this is bad for the longs IMO. When commercials short the spoo's, it is a hedge. Therefore, they **THINK** the market will go down. So if it goes up and they're hedging, what happens? They unload **STOCK**, because they expect the markets to go down. If the market goes down, the hedge works. So in other words, even if the market goes up, there will be upside pressure created by the commercials IMO. It's almost like they've shown their hand if you read into the spoo numbers.
I'm sure it's not this simple and there's no way I can read the minds of the commercial shorts, but this is the way I see it.
chic |
