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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 220.75

-0.3%

3:38 PM EST

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To: niceguy767 who wrote (20786)	11/28/2000 6:17:00 AM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (5) of 275872

Niceguy and all: xbitlabs.com Did you see the AMD processors production number table xbitlabs.com has published on their website ? I pasted the conclusions they draw from the numbers of the table below. If the numbers are true it is a major disappointment for me. Like I also suspected they were producing less Athlons than Durons in Q4 even as Q3 extrapolation would result in the contrary (only 1.4mio Athlons in Q3, I thought it was 2.2mio?) ! The worse is this will continue and they will focus on Durons ? I can't believe why they should be doing this, it will absolutely kill their ASP. Only explanation: Dresden is yielding very poorly and installation of 0.13m is almost stopping the linear ramp of 0.18m copper production. I also expected some production transition problems due to Palomino, Morgan core intruduction and 0.13m equipment installation but not in such an extend. By the way, Niceguy tried to calm me and said he expected no transition problems at all. Obviously he is dead wrong. The numbers would also in part support RS manufacturing problems warning of yesterday, IMO. All in all I am pretty disappointed. Xbitlabs is excited about the Duron numbers. Well, I am not. Are they going to fight the P4 ramp with Durons like in the old days they fought against the PIII with K6 ? I thought this would change ? Does it mean Dresden ramp up is stuck at 30-40% for a significant time ? Opinions ? ------------------------- "AMD to Increase Duron Volumes [3:42 pm] Rat Our reliable sources told us a few really intriguing things about AMD’s plans concerning Duron CPU manufacturing during the coming four months. Here is what we can expect: And now a few comments of ours to this table. Slot A Athlon processors manufacturing has been discontinued. AMD will not discontinue its Socket 7 K6 family in early 2001, though the manufacturing volumes may get somewhat smaller then. Socket A Athlon CPUs will be manufactured in the same quantities in Q1 2001. Duron manufacturing will grow very fast (which is a very pleasant sign :-) In Q1 2001 the amount of manufactured Duron CPUs will be twice the amount of the manufactured Athlons. The overall CPU manufacturing by AMD will not increase that fast any more. This is most likely to be connected with the fact that AMD assigned half of the Dresden plant to be re-equipped for 0.13 micron production lines." xbitlabs.com

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