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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Apollo who wrote (35281)	11/28/2000 7:26:23 AM
From: Todd Bishop	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Thanks again Apollo for orchestrating this survey. 2000 portfolio: QCOM 22.9% CSCO 11.9% GMST 10.5% RMBS 9.0% JDSU 8.9% SEBL 7.8% ITWO 7.7% EMC 7.5% NTAP 7.1% JNPR 3.0% PCTL 2.7% CASH 1.1% Biggest mistake: Thanks to the guidance of this thread, I've ignored performance in the short term and have continued to dollar cost average throughout. If I had to pick one, I'd choose the purchase of Juniper because I still waffle on how I'd classify it. They've grabbed a portion of the network equipment market that Cisco never had a stronghold in. That market has been classified as a portion of the router market which is Cisco's bread and butter but it doesn't seem to touch the markets that Cisco has held strong in. Where Cisco has a product that meets the needs, it leads. In the high end service provider market, Cisco has never been very successful and Juniper has swallowed that market whole. They've succeeded because they went after a segment of the router market that Cisco hasn't ever really met the needs of. That segment of the router market seemingly has grown faster than the rest of the overall router market and Juniper is gaining market share as a result. Many here are aware that this segment of the router market has been more about speed than it has been about quality or functionality or service, etc. Juniper has won over the segment by having all of the above including the required speed. The big question becomes, what happens if Juniper stumbles on speed and is leapfrogged like so many companies before them in this segment? I'm hopeful that the speed is good enough and that the functionality, quality and service will make their product more sticky than previous attempts which have typically missed on one or more of these qualities. The next question is how do you classify them. Sounds like a hunt report but for the sake of making a point to my rambling, I'm considering whether this segment of the router market is so different from the overall router market that it should be considered a niche. And although I've never heard talk of a king of a niche, a more interesting classification to this thread has been the chimp in a niche market. Does Juniper meet this classification? I've had my doubts but I believe an argument could be made for it. They have an OS which better suits this segment than the IOS that has made Cisco a gorilla in the rest of the router market. They also have several of the people which made Cisco such a success. I'm off to do some additional dd before I decide whether my mistake will pan. Todd Bishop

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