Let's go inside the numbers to do a little bit of analysis into why Gore just won't seem to let go.
Gore's relative vote margin lead nationwide (percentage differential) is much greater than Bush's relative margin in FL...think about that!! A chump change 300,000 vote nationwide lead out of 100,000,000 votes cast would be equivalent to an 18,000 vote lead in a FL with 6mm votes cast. Yet, the current 500+/- FL differential is a fraction of that 18,000.
Many have said that Gore should do what Nixon and Ford did in 1960 and 1976 respectively. But let’s do a little comparison of the 3 elections:
2000—One state is critical to the election of either candidate, namely FL. Nearly 6 mm votes cast, 500 +/- vote differential. A differential of less than 1/100 of 1% of the total votes cast.
1960—Kennedy won IL by a mere 9000 out of 4.7mm cast, which would correspond to a win of nearly 11,500 if 6 mm votes had been cast. That narrow victory is more than 20 times the current vote differential in FL.
Kennedy won TX by 46000 out of 2.3 mm cast, which would correspond to a win of nearly 120,000 if 6 mm votes had been cast. That narrow victory was more than 200 times the current vote differential in FL.
So, in both of the states that Nixon was contemplating a challenge, the relative lead differential dwarfed the current situation in FL. Moreover, Nixon would have had to have been successful in BOTH of those challenges to have won the Electoral College in 1960.
1976--In 1976, Carter won OH by 11,000 out of 4mm votes cast and he won MS by 15000 out of 800,000 votes cast. Without doing the math, you see that both of these narrow margins also dwarf the current FL situation. In fact, the MS margin of victory is a landslide by comparison. Moreover, Ford would also have had to win BOTH recounts in OH and MS to have won the Electoral College.
1960 and 1976 elections with two "close" states each both pale in comparison to the 2000 FL vote margin in the ONE, and only ONE, state that is critical for victory.
Having said that, perhaps even a dispassionate observer can understand why the passions are running so high here. I would think that all the partisans can understand it.
TG |
