Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

+1.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Henry D who wrote (40044)	11/28/2000 10:11:59 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

re: I believe the best time for stock prices to appreciate is when the btb is under 1 and then accelerates over 1. This would have been a good strategy from 1996 to 1998. However, if you would have used this strategy from 1992 to 1996 you would have missed out on one of the best times to own the stock. The btb stayed above 1 throughout this time period as the stock rose from under 1 to about 14. Earnings rose consistently for about 5 years. I might have been delusional but I held AMAT at over 100 this year (against your system of selling when btb rises above 1) in the belief that their "cycle" could last 5 years once again. I felt fears that arose this summer of the cycle ending were based on comparing this cycle to the short-lived 1996-97 cycle--short-lived because of the Asian crisis. I felt just as the 1996 cycle may have ended artificially early that this cycle might last longer. Sixty to seventy points later, I am not so sure. I am not too upset because the money I would have saved in selling AMAT I undoubtedly would have lost buying others.

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