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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve
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To: chomolungma who wrote (3685)11/28/2000 10:16:38 AM
From: TraderGreg  Read Replies (1) of 6710
 
Chomo--I think what Carolyn and Steve were saying is this:

If the 10,000 votes were randomly distributed with respect to precinct and likelihood of error(either way), then you would expect Gore to get 53% and Bush to get 47% for a net gain of 600, right?

However, apparently, the 1/5 sample of votes that were counted was done in precincts that Gore won by much bigger %, say just 70 to 30 for simplicity. That should have produced 1400 for Gore and 600 for Bush, net gain of 800 for Gore(victory margin differential of 40% times 2000 counted). Yet, Gore's margin was only around 150.

The claim thus is that in the other 8000 votes, they came from precincts where Bush did much better than 47%.

Assuming these stratifications are correct, they have a very good point. Seems odd, but it is a point, especially if the "English as a 2nd Language voter error" issue is valid.

That's why I would like to see them all counted...just to make sure.

TG
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