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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla Game Investing in the eWorld

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1812)11/28/2000 12:10:58 PM
From: Bruce Brown   of 1817
 
Do you think that the analytical tools this thread was developing can help predict a list of e-commerce survivors?

There will be survivors. The balance sheets of a company like Yahoo! or AOL clearly show that. However, the market has finally decided how to value these 'older' two based on their balance sheets and income statements. A lot of the carnage in the models that did not or will not make it simply couldn't make their business model work. In addition, large firms like Wal-Mart, K-Mart, etc... have solid entries into the online model for a sales outlet. This, in my opinion, will crush most of the online sales types of models. Yahoo! is an interesting media online model that I think will survive as a pure Godzilla. AOL, of course, is now merging with TW.

Keep in mind, that this is only the first wave of online models and there will be other waves that are stronger and have 'learned' from the first wave. It will be interesting to see if the survivors of the first wave continue to enjoy the network effects. I am saving my pennies for possible additional shares after the smoke has cleared over the next few quarters.

BB
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