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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.500+1.9%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (8303)11/28/2000 1:36:29 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (3) of 34857
 
"PS: I'll take the 960,000 in 6 months. That is not bad growth by any stretch of anybodies imagination."

OK - let's stretch our imaginations. DoCoMo is the giant of the Japanese mobile internet market. Behind it, two rivals are clawing for the number two slot.

At the end of August, KDDI versus J-Phone sub numbers for their mobile internet programs looked like this: 3.52 million versus 2.68 million. KDDI was marginally ahead.

Here's the twist - J-phone growth from April-August period topped 110% (the J-SkyWeb program), whereas KDDI growth was below 70% (EZWeb program).

A summary: J-phone is wiping the floor with KDDI when it comes to mobile internet. The much-maligned PDC standard is somehow being spun to pure growth gold by J-Phone, whereas KDDI's newly launched CDMA service is being clobbered in the market place.

You can attribute DoCoMo's success to its dominant market position. You can't explain away J-Phone's success in the same manner, because it's the underdog.

So actually, yes - KDDI's 960 000 overall sub growth projection for the next six months *is* a bad, bad number. By a minimal stretch of imagination. It augurs the ascendancy of J-Phone to the number two position in the Japanese mobile internet market. These market share issues are going to be pretty important on the eve of 3G launches in Japan.

Tero
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