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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Dealer who started this subject	11/28/2000 1:58:21 PM
From: djia101362	of 65232

I just yanked this off another thread...it doesn't mean much on a day like this but who knows, eventually one of these guys made end up being right. A bit from Michael Murphy tech analyst... "I think a major bear trap is shaping up. I have noticed a lot of brokerage firms trying to pile on and knock stocks down. The most egregious has been Merrill Lynch. I think there are some analysts there that have made career ending moves and are going to end up driving taxicabs. There are huge amounts of dollars on the sidelines, so liquidity is really building up. That is not just from individuals but also from pension funds seem to be holding back. In fact, the companies themselves that are planning to buy stock seem to be waiting perhaps until they have seen the November numbers. This leads you to believe that when the market finally turns back up there are going to be a lot of people who just plain can not get back in. It is going to be extremely difficult. Given all that I believe things are going to turn up fairly sharply. I am in Singapore right now. I have been meeting with Singapore government officials and talking with them. They have, which is very interesting to me, just raised their estimate for gross domestic product (GNP) for this year based on the strength of electronics and semiconductor production. They have a really extensive worldwide network of commercial representatives that keep track of how business really is. They specifically said in their statement-and I also was able to meet with the American Ambassador about this-they said that there is no slowdown in the demand for semiconductors. That is pretty profound from a country where it really, really makes a difference if they get this right or not. They do not see any worldwide slowdown and of course it is another piece of the overall pie. We got the semiconductor book to bill ratio this month. There was no slowdown; in fact, there was a new record up 5%. The book to bill held flat with the prior month, September. So, again although you see a lot of commentators on CNBC talking about the slowdown and talking about the disappointments, they never give a number. They do not give a number because they do not have them. Michael Murphy" I'd sure like to see Dan Niles driving a taxicab next year.

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