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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: StockOperator who wrote (36587)11/28/2000 6:07:47 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson  Read Replies (1) of 42787
 
SO,
We are in full agreement. Fundamentals are driving this. I think any rally on news of the election being settled will be a short term blip. This morning's announcement about declining durable goods orders and electronics orders was followed by the Chicago Fed President saying that inflation was still the Fed's most important concern. Since the last Fed hike will take a few more months to have its full impact, these orders declines probably are a sample of things to come. Once businesses suspect their orders and earnings are in trouble, they will stretch out or cancel planned investment. By the time the Fed recognizes the economy is in trouble, earnings should really be in the tank (the same thing happened in 1990). I next expect analysts to reduce earnings projections and downgrade tech stocks repeatedly over the next three months. I don't think earnings will bottom until sometime next year. Some of us made a lot of money buying high P/E stocks and selling them higher. Now some of us are making money selling high P/E stocks and covering them lower. Can anyone tell me when the fundamentals will start to look better? Can anyone explain why there won't be a lot more downside before things turn around? Values overshot to the high side. I wouldn't be surprised to see them overshoot to the low side.
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