Thanks. That's an interesting way of looking at it.
I long ago decided that the highest quality stock in any sector is the safest choice, even though it is usually at a higher PE. This is a rule I follow rigidly, and it has kept me out of trouble over and over.
40 held on AMAT today, and I almost bought. But CNBC is saying the PC companies are reporting slow holiday sales. Just about everything I'm buying for my family for Christmas either has a chip in it, or cannot be used without some equipment that has chips. Palm Pilot, CDs, games, etc.
I don't think market sentiment will turn until the New Year, and maybe not till March 2001. I think I'll wait and give this stock a while longer to prove support will hold. If 40 doesn't hold, then 27-30 is the next support level. Important support on the Nasdaq has been broken, no bottom in sight. The slowdown in consumer spending has just begun, and it's too early to say how long, or how deep, it will go. The full effect of the Fed rate hikes won't be felt until early-mid 2001.
The reasons why the market went down in late 1998 are all different from the reasons for the late-2000 downturn, so comparisons of their severity won't tell us much, IMO. |
