Credence (CMOS): Anyone out there Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Credence (CMOS): Anyone out there

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To: ELH1006 who wrote (453)	11/28/2000 7:40:46 PM
From: t2	of 497

Working capital less all debt equates to $378 million or $6.82 per share. Subtract $6.82 from today's closing price of $18.50 and you arrive at $11.68 per share for the business aspect. I have ignored the $137 million in long term investments which most likely decreases this amount further. Starting with the pretax income amount of $77.7 million, I deducted interest and other income of $4.7 million and added back the amortization charge of $4.9 million and the in-process charge of $3.5 million to arrive at $81.4 million. Apply an income tax provision of 35.25 % and you get net income of $52.7 million for the quarter on the business. Annualize to $210.8 million or $3.80 per share. This equates to a PE of 3.07. Assuming the long-term investments is a cash equivalent and the PE becomes 2.37. My god, even if the annualized net is $3.00 per share, you still get a PE of 3.9. Eddie, Great analysis of the business. They are expecting to earn 2.40 per share at the present time. That is pretty good. I don't believe CMOS is another KLIC in terms of stock trading. I have read on message boards that this will turn into another KLIC. I would say it is more like an AMAT. Just look at these comparisons (for example): KLIC EPS Sept 2000 (year)= 1.92----EPS Sept 2001=1.27 --EPS Sept 2002= $0.70 Now look at CMOS Oct1999=$0.07---Oct2000 EPS=$2.82----OCT EPS 2001=$2.40 KLIC stock has been hammered. I don't see anything like this for CMOS. We only have a slight reduction in EPS. The company insisted to an analyst that margins won't be under that much presure, given 20% being temporary employees among other things. Basically, what I got from the CC was that there is not really much of a change for significant margin pressures. Paying off debt certainly helps a little in preserve margins in a bad environment if it turns into that. Gaining market share along with a book to bill of 1 is pretty impressive. Asia is hurting them but if that market shows any uptick, CMOS will rally. Currency stabilization in that part of the world will surely help CMOS. I think they want to take a cautious approach to upcoming earnings because it makes no sense to keep a high bar of performance in this environment. The stock has already been hit so hard that any upside suprises could be catalysts for this one.

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