George, I do not disagree with the number under 2000 (my own "count" has been for quite some time a range of 1900 to 5300 for the next seven/ten years, now only 5 to 8 left). I just think that the "under 2000" level will not come until we are clearly into a quarter of negative growth in GDP threatening the "declaration" of a recession. The momentum in the economy, while abating is still there for this and next quarter to be positive, so at the earliest, I see 1900 in late summer early spring. I also think that is the "best case scenario (since from there we should a real barn burning rally). My worst case is that we make a lousy low here just between 2500 and 2700, rally to about 3150 or so by mid January and then fall to "only" the 2200 or so level by early march, get a fed induced major rally, but by Autumn, face the combined music of huge trade deficits, weak dollar, weakening Asian and European markets and possibly some financial crisis in corner or other of the world and get a crash from the mid 3000 or so to that 1900. Depending on various "fed stands", I get three potential lows for next year, early March, mid August and the favorite October crash. I have got no better road map right now post March, since there are too many "unknowns" in the exogenous environment.
Zeev |
