To: Rashomon who wrote (8279)
From: Zeev Hed
Tuesday, Nov 28, 2000 11:26 PM ET
Respond to Post # 8280 of 8280
Rashomon, it depends on your time horizons, short term, I doubt we make it to 2500, thus
now is a pretty good step to buy, however medium term, I do not see much of a rally post
the middle of January, and then another major dip. My main scenario does not have 1900
until next Autumn, but things have been accelerating relative to that scenario (we were not
supposed to breach 2850 according to the turnips scenario), thus who knows. My
"modified" scenario has us rallying from around here (or at most another 200 Naz points
down), but only if we get some extreme readings in the naz Tic before that. That rally could
get us to about 3150 or so before mid January (possibly not beyond the first week), and
then a bad relapse down to about 2200 or so. If the feds step in (and I think they would if
by March we breach 2000 on the Naz), that may be the bottom, but I doubt that they will,
thus this bottom will be only a relief. I have, right now, a rally from that low to at moast the
mid 3000 (probably not much more than 3400, high enough to get everyone very bullish
again after a very rapid 50% gain for the naz from its low) and then sometime between mid
August to October another real low at 1900. Then it will be , IMTO, a great time to jump
in for a good 18 month or so of a solid markets, but not to th high reached in march of this
year. The next four five months are pretty solid in the scenario, after that, it depends a lot on
exogenous circumstances, including the presidency, the feds, Asia, the Euro, the possible
blow up of our balance of payment and weakening of the dollar.
We now have "uncommon values", but we surely do not have fear in the market. Margin
calls are covered with new cash rather than liquidation of stocks, the Dow and S&P are still
quite strong (relatively speaking), we really did not get a major extreme in the tic reading
nor the trin. Advisors are still above 50% bullish etc. I forgot, and the holy one is still above
$14 (more than SSTI <VBG>).
Zeev |
