As for when this GORING of the electoral process will end, I'd like to venture my speculation as to the final outcome and welcome others to venture their ideas:
A key question is which watershed event will ultimately cause Fuerher Gore to concede:
1) Unfavorable court rulings, or
2) Florida Legislature hands 25 electoral votes to Bush, or
3) He finally loses significant support from the American public and key Democrytes and has no other choice to martyr himself as a victim of chad machines for the rest of his life.
My guess would be option #3 above: That this debacle will be ended by a trickle of discontent that turns rapidly into a torrent.
Against the backdrop of the various court sessions this week and next, we might soon see some defectors from the ranks of the re-counters decide to leak the true behind-the-scenes story about unbridled bias in the recount and possibly fraud.
Then of course, we'll soon begin to see some high-ranking Democrats defect from the Gore party line. Of key significance is how many of Congressional Democrats have been conspicuously silent through this because they don't want to be on record as having supported the GORING of the electoral process. Their silence speaks volumes.
Once Gore "officially" loses his support from key Democrats, it'll be like rats abandoning a sinking ship. And remember, while in Congress, Gore didn't develop a lot of chummy friendships (he's not as much of a likeable good-ol-boy as Clinton is), so he's not going to have a lot of friends when this all settles.
Regarding the markets, I'm expecting a substantial market rebound when Gore concedes. There is more institutional cash on the sidelines than in Fall 1997, and it is waiting to be deployed. Bargain stocks abound and we're not heading for a recession.
I would very much like to see a 500-point Nasdaq rebound on the day Gore concedes. That type of market reaction would not only confirm how much the market didn't like the uncertainty, but that the market has begun to loathe the prospect of a Gore presidency. Witness every time he went on the air in the past few weeks, the market tanked.
As of today, the Nasdaq is down 19% since Election Day. That's a complete self-contained BEAR MARKET in two weeks! (Recall the standard definition of Correction is 10% drop and Bear Market is 20% drop)
My guess is Gore may concede sometime next week after the Supreme Court reviews the Bush case and other unforeseen developments occur. Any other ideas about the timing of his concession speech from some of the great minds on this board?
This is going to get real interesting.
Parting shot: Gore's first grandson will be named "Chad" too! |
