Re: 2000 Telecom Beating
"I'm attempting to view the events of the last 24 months in a historical perspective."
Ray- Thanks for you contrary comments. As you know, I welcome them.
You say '24 months' above. I say more like 3 months! Right up to Sept 5th, the telecom sector was still in bloom and flourishing(from the equipment perspective). Then the day the boys returned from the Hamptons, all hell broke loose. In reality can the world change that fast? Did you notice the concerted effort by Wall Street to suddenly start shouting 'the end is near.' It would have even made the Gore spin machine proud. It was like they were all reading off the same fax sheet. So what changed between Sept 4th and Sept 5th?
As to your comments about most of the world being so poor as to not need telecommunication services I have two points.
One is they do need to get connected in order to become effective players in the world marketplace. Unfortunately or fortunately, probably the more poor the workforce, the stronger the need to be connected.
And two is, who would have thought the poor needed TV infrastructure and equipment....I'll never forget the ride I took out of Bangkok last year on the overnight train to Koh Samui. For the first 20 miles(!) the train traveled slowly through the night and one could be a voyuer into the nightly rituals of some of the poorest people on Earth. They lived in tin shacks, right up against the train tracks, stacked three high at times. Most about 12'x12'. But guess what? Just about all of them had the glow of a TV set as they huddled around engrossed in it. Here are those stats in case one thinks we in North America or Europe dominate in this area:
____________
Europe: 257 mil TV households / 66 mil are cable TV
Asia: 545 mil TV housesholds / 100 mil are cable TV
Latin America: 100 mil TV households / 15 mil are cable TV
North America: 110 mil TV households / 75 mil are cable TV
Total TV households Worldwide: 1,012,000,000
Total Cable TV households Worldwide: 256,000,000
Message 14172058
______________
...as you can see Asia has a 5 to 1 advantage in terms of the number of TV households and Asia even holds an advantage in cable TV subs. From the TV households I saw in the outskirts of Bangkok, they didn't even have running water. It was surreal. Would anyone have ever predicted this?
As I said before, if you find some predictions that worldwide telecom service providers revenues are going to decrease in the future, then I'll start to worry. The slowdown you refer to has been in capital spending. Still showing growth, but at a less torrid pace. But I have yet to find anyone claim that service provider revenues are predicted to even slow down. Much less decrease yr/yr as one would think in looking at the beating this sector has taken. Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida) |
