Keith,
Re: BellSouth/SBC in Latin America - CDMA/TDMA - EDGE?
As promised, here are excerpts from a very good article in a recent GSMA publication that discusses the dilemma caused by introduction of (spectrum for) GSM-1800 in Brazil and potential ramifications for Latin America.
I find the article reasonably objective. You might not.
Whether or not Sprint PCS goes after CDMA-1800 in Brazil is the big question.
The author is doubtful about Sprint PCS bidding. I would not rule it out.
It would seem possible that BellSouth International could convert 800 MHz TDMA properties in Brazil and bid for CDMA-1800 in the new spectrum but incumbents don't get a shot initially at the new spectrum.
The article references the fact that BellSouth Chile is reported to be planning to switch its TDMA network to CDMA in order to compete. Problem here again is that no BellSouth source is cited.
Please note the Question Mark in the title of this article which is the source of the above excerpts:
>> GSM's Big Break Through?
GSM Q Magazine
October 2000
gsmworld.com
<snip>
Yet bringing GSM in 1.8GHz to Brazil is not going to be trouble-free. The main problem is roaming, both internally and internationally. Internally, new GSM networks will have to find a way of roaming with the 850MHz cellular operators using AMPS, TDMA or CDMA technology. Since Brazil's is a particularly mobile society, failure to deliver roaming in the start-up phase will put GSM operators at a serious disadvantage. "New classes of handsets, probably 1800 with analogue, will be needed," remarks Bryian Prohm senior analyst in telecom mobile at Gartner-Dataquest. "It will take several years to build up GSM coverage and in the meanwhile analogue will have to keep it together. Incumbent operators will leverage this message."
International roaming is also going to be difficult. Tri-band GSM phones (900,1800 and 1900) will solve the problems of roaming to the US (the main destination for Brazil's small band of international travellers), Europe and other GSM countries in Latin America. But some other solution will be needed for roaming with, for example, Argentina, one of the main destinations for Brazilian travellers. Anatel appears to have been 'sensitive to the issue but put its faith in technological progress. " One of the keys to Anatel's decision was that roaming was possible between TDMA and GSM networks." says Juan Carlos Jil of the GGRF. "We demonstrated this to them in Brazil. We don't see roaming as a problem. It is just a matter of time."
<snip>
Yet for all the doubts about implementation, Brazil will have new operators, running new GSM networks in the second half of 2001.
Though there has been some talk of adapting CDMA to 1.8GHz especially for Brazil, analysts are highly sceptical about the business case. "It is very unlikely unless someone like Sprint PCS wins a licence," says Bryian Prohm of Gartner-Dataquest.
With WAP already a battleground between the incumbent CDMA and TDMA operators, no one seems in any doubt that these networks will be state- of-the-art and data-intensive. "If you don't have data to offer high-end users you'll lose big time," says Jamila Xible in Brazil. "They'll be service-rich networks and I can't see why an operator would not go straight to GPRS," says Mikael Calais. "With a greenfield network you can plan immediately."
But a push may also come from the regulators. A government minister in Uruguay has already hinted that the country is considering using 1.8GHz for PCS. Given Uruguay's economic ties with Brazil, this would be a rational decision. There are also rumours that Argentina will soon make available 900MHz spectrum. It would be a pragmatic solution to a difficult situ- ation. "The Argentine regulators were really disappointed that Brazil went for 1.8GHz," says Ms. Mahler of the Yankee Group.
Meanwhile in Mexico, the most serious hole in future GSM coverage in Latin America, GSM supporters are optimistic that the new government will somehow open the market to them. It has pledged to boost competition in the telecoms market and has available some 1.9GHz spectrum for re-auction.
<snip>
BellSouth has TDMA properties in Brazil, Chile, Peru and Colombia but two of its strong-performing networks, in Argentina and Venezuela, use CDMA. It will want to extend its presence in Brazil, but this will mean adopting a third standard. Telefonica has similar but more severe problems: it already has a patchwork ofTDMA and CDMA networks both inside and outside Brazil.
In a slightly better position are the new Telmex-Bell Canada International - SBC alliance and Telecom ltalia. The former, which would like to build its presence in Brazil, has only TDMA properties but it might eventually use EDGE to integrate with any future GSM networks. Two of its properties, Telmex's Telcel in Mexico and ATL Algar in Rio deJaneiro, Brazil, were amongst the first operators to sign EDGE development agreements in the region.
Telecom Italia could also be a strong candidate for convergence through EDGE. It is a shareholder in Latin America's biggest GSM network, Entel PCS in Chile, and has also committed to the standard in Peru (where it will build a PCS 1900 network) and in Venezuela (where it is trying to consolidate three GSM 900 licences). But it too has TDMA properties, notably in Argentina, Brazil and Bolivia, and EDGE development would be the most logical path towards integration.
Where does this leave the TDMA and CDMA camps? Supporters of CDMA perhaps have more immediate reason to feel aggrieved by Brazil's decision. Inside Brazil, CDMA only has coverage of four of the nine cellular areas (though two of these cover the big metropolitan markets of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro). PCS licensing in 1.9GHz would have given the operators a chance to build nationwide coverage: without it they will have depend on analogue roaming for some while. In a wider Latin American context, it is now far less likely that an operator such as Sprint PCS (which is an investor in Pegaso PCS, Mexico's most dynamic new network) will try to build towards all-digital COMA coverage of the major economies.
<snip>
Various CDMA 800 operators (amongst them Telcel in Venezuela and Telefonica Celular in Rio, Brazil) have also shown how efficient CDMA can be in handling very large numbers of subscribers, a strong selling point in a region where cellular access lines are starting to supplant conventional wirelines. Meanwhile Entel PCS, a GSM 1900 operator in Chile, claimed one million subscribers (in a country of I5 million) and market leadership in just two and a half years. So successful has it become that BellSouth Chile is reported to be planning to switch its TDMA network to CDMA in order to compete.
Brazil's GSM operators will need to show some of Entel PCS's dynamism to prosper but they will face a tougher task. One reason is that Anatel's diligent decision-making has taken a long time. While it has been considering, incumbent operators have been attacking the low end of the market with pre- pay and the high end with WAP services. By the time GSM networks launch, cellular penetration may already exceed 20 per cent in the major cities and fierce data competition from TDMA/EDGE and CDMA networks deploying 1XRTT will be imminent. Highly aggressive and innovative marketing plans will be needed to crack the market open.
In 1997, many critics believed that Entel PCS in Chile would be isolated after its board controversially chose GSM over CDMA. In 1999, after GSM vendors failed to pick up a single PCS licence in Argentina or Brazil, critics believed the standard would only ever establish a footprint in the more marginal economies. That the standard is seeking to establish pan-regional coverage today is a remarkable achievement. <<
- Eric - |
