Kas1,
Thanks for the reaction - I can see everyone is really feeling this market. But I couldn't disagree with your post more. First off, please re-read my post - not once did I use the words 'trade' or 'trading'. That whole concept in this conversation is all yours. I mentioned working volatility is advantageous if worked properly. Whether you work volatility in hours or months or even years will determine your definition of 'trading.'
Most importantly, I do not feel that the market is "a crapshoot" to use your words. Or a "lottery" either. Not at all. If you feel this way then I can see why you think DD, analyzing and studying the market is useless. But I do not Kas1- DD, stock selection, sector selection, market selection and a whole host of factors determine everyone's investment decisions. These are what make up the sources of what you call "informational advantage". But is not exclusively the province of investment houses and it is not having insider information. It IS putting the pieces of your study together and perceiving something earlier (hopefully) than other investors. This works whether the market is going up or down! . Figuring out how investors make their decisions is a good deal of what stock market analysis is all about.
No predictive mechanism, system, or person has ever shown efficacy greater than
zero.
Garbage! First off, over what time period? I can predict that Ntap will go up in the next month or two. If I am right have I shown an efficacy greater than zero? Second off, there are whole industries involved with predicting each and every market and the vast majority of them are successful enough to continue their business. You have introduced the idea of 'predictability'. It is an aspect of EVERY investment you or I will ever make. You can never escape that fact, not even if you choose to use a dartboard for selection purposes. You make every investment using your predictive capabilities, whether you decide to give your money to a MF or invest instead in derivatives.
"Your statement, however, teeters dangerously on that line, implying that one needs to trade to get "every last dime" out of NTAP."
Dangerously huh? Sorry - didn't mean to write anything dangerous.
Good luck,
Eric |
