Dave: Excellent point here! I engage in a lot of futurism because I enjoy it and do believe it can help in making intermediate- and longer-term trading decisions (even given the fact that the world is awfully unpredictable right now). Personally, for trading purposes, I try to maintain a clear distinction between this kind of longer-term forecasting and the kinds of opportunities that are available day by day. I have basically decided that it's sensible for me to scalp some highly liquid, predictable Nasdaq issues on a day to day basis -- just to maintain cash flow and justify these hours I spend watching the market. Anyone can make money from CSCO, SUNW, INTC, and the like, without concerning oneself with longer-term trajectories of news, sentiment, economic fundamentals, etc.
I'm hoping the longer-term forecasting will eventually give me the confidence to enter stocks like TERN, CAMP, FFIV, TUTS, IDCC, PANL, HTEK etc., with an eye on significant appreciation over a three- to six-month time frame. The market may not permit those trades, but it's more fun to contemplate the prospects of these companies than to focus solely on large-cap scalps day in and day out.
My bottom line, though, is this: it's important not to let longer-term biases blind me to the opportunities that stare me in the face on an everyday basis. It's still possible to daytrade (scalp), even when the market looks unruly. |
