WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 157.75

+0.4%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: DaveMG who wrote (16871)	11/29/2000 3:53:26 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 60323

When I try to put my finger on what sort of built in competitive advantage SNDK has vis a vis the "Big Guys" I find it hard to pinpoint anything very specific that will suffice. I think you hit the nail on the head. In this challenging environment for equities and especially for tech, the market is discounting the worst case scenario. The only way to justify a PE of 10 is to view the company as a non-low-cost producer in a commodity market. Cut-throat pricing is the big worry short-term, while barriers to entry are questionable. The speed with which Simple and Lexar have taken shelf-space is worrisome, even as the prospect of additional royalties provides minor comfort. The prospect of sharing a market with several desperate unprofitable producers is unsettling even for the profitable market leader. Having broken support at 41, we are in unchartered waters. It is hard to imagine testing long-term support at 20, unless prices really tumble. The one point your excellent post failed to address was the R-word. If we enter a recession, and the chances of this have been increasing, I'm not certain that we will avoid a hiccup in the current robust sales of digital cameras, particularly when the Xmas buying season is behind us. If this occurs, we may see the kind of ugly reaction we experienced in the cell phone food-chain a few months ago. Nobody saw it coming until the train ran them over. As you said, "Patent royalty alone doesn't seem to be enough to fall back on at this juncture." Until we can quantify the sustainability of SNDK's competitive advantage or the threat of recession ends, I see a continuation of the money flow into more defensive sectors like food and drugs. Let's not forget that the most convenient time to engineer a recession is at the beginning of a new president's term. Next year the Fed will not have as much wiggle room to maintain high interest rates.

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