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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: cheryl williamson who wrote (38380)11/29/2000 5:27:23 PM
From: A.L. Reagan  Read Replies (3) of 64865
 
Simple valuation metrics per Multex consensus estimates on SI. EPS for FY 2001 (ends 6/01) vs. 2002 show 25% growth.

Numbers shown are $1.40 (FY '01) and $1.75 (FY '02).

In a normal historical market this translates to a P/E in the range of 35-40x, assuming the growth rate is sustainable.

If we average the FY '01 and '02 estimates, in order to derive a 12-month forward earnings number, and multiply by a P/E of say 37.5, the result is $59-1/16; $63.00 @ 40x P/E; $70-7/8 @ 45x P/E. Above 45x, not realistic given general revaluation we are seeing.

The 25% growth per the consensus numbers is not unreasonable given the issues we know about in the U.S. The rest of the world really ain't that great either.

40% YoY growth is hallucinatory in the current environment.
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