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Technology Stocks : Mattson Technology

MTSN 3.600

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May 12 5:00 PM EST

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To: John Stewart who wrote (3170)	11/29/2000 6:11:15 PM
From: Philip W. Dunton, Jr	Read Replies (1) of 3661

John S. Missing an upturn (as you suggest I am risking) doesn't seem to be an immediate concern when I read reports like this out of an ongoing tech conferences this evening: <<So personal computers stunk so badly that it didn't matter what else happened. At least for now. Everything is trading down precipitously in a way that smacks of another give-up. Remember, this market trades off of whoever speaks last. The last two speakers are Gateway (GTW:NYSE - news - boards) and Altera (ALTR:Nasdaq - news - boards) and both are saying extremely negative things. How negative? Mind-blowingly negative. Gateway's miss is just gigantic. As big as they come. Altera's is massively negative. They are saying things that make you feel that things have suddenly gotten much worse. They make you feel that Dan Niles was dead right in his call yesterday that you have to stay away from anything having to do with communications semiconductors. Of course, nobody who is long wants to hear any of this. And there will be a loud defense that we should ignore the news because it is Altera- and Gateway-specific. But it isn't. And we will have another tough tech day, even as we have another easy day in food and drug land. I was amazed to hear that someone on the tube was saying the drug stocks are getting dangerous here. To who? That's the kind of propaganda that makes me crazy. The risk is in the companies with bad fundies, not with high stock prices. That's all that matters to the buyers and sellers in this market.>> You ask me where the bottom is? I don't know but I have enough experience with bear markets to know that the current NAZZ down leg (which appears to be the second of three) won't end until the sentiment indicators show extreme bearishness and panic. We could be there in a week or maybe a month. The sentiment will tell me when we are there. Good luck. Hope you are not on margin. Phil

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