VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: jcky who wrote (20857)	11/29/2000 8:51:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) of 65232

the key to the US stock market for next four months: Fed and US$ you said it, man, you speak my language: Keep an eye on the US dollar. If the US dollar starts to fall, Uncle Al and the Feds will have their hands tied and will be unable to sustain a longer term trend of lowering interest rates. Greenspan had better start cutting rates before the largest market in the world does, the currency market for those who are unfamiliar with this concept... the Treasury Bond yield is like a dividend paid to owners of the USdollar, not exactly but close... as Greenspan cuts rates, the bond market response will be to have yields rise slightly... this compensates and attracts US$ buyers and attains equilibrium if Greenspan does NOT cut rates, then we might see a problem develop in our bond market... he will eventually cut rates while TBond yields are ALREADY rising... timing for Greeny is essential the longer Greenie waits, the harder the Soft Landing and the higher TBond yield might be if the currency markets do the job first by the way: LAST SOFT LANDING CULMINATED IN ASIAN MELTDOWN abolish the Fed Greeny and the Fed Governors cause recessions and temporary global panics / Jim

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