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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 670.31-1.1%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (63364)11/29/2000 9:46:12 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
8% equity is bearable, as half is accounted for puts on NEM (12.5) and SWC (25), expiration January.

I have downloaded and printed out the reports from the URLs kindly provided by folks here. Very heavy and lots of forest used. I am figuring on

(a) construction income & expense statement of everymen 1990(one earning $50k and one earning $100k) and balance sheet,

(b) assuming that no one wants to retire on a lesser income than they were then currently getting, inflation adjusted

(c) constructing income/expense and balance sheet for everymen 2000 (one earning $100k and one earning $200k), inflation adjust 1990 retirement pot amount

(d) pencil in the attributable gains via NASDAQ/DOW over the past 10 years and the capital gain via real estate, noting increase of leverage in house and stock account

(e) comparing current balance sheet state to state desired when retiring in 2010, vs 1990 state to balance desired when retiring in 2010

(f) infer point of panic trigger, say realization that the last x years of gain has vaporized and 2010 retirement in serious doubt assuming long term stock return of 10%, or say at which point is everymen worse off today than in 1990. If the leverage (magic) in the system is large for everymen, then the panic point can be reached far quicker than the NASDAQ reaching from 500 to 5000.

I feel relatively safe to assume that no subsequent baby boomlet will be lining up to buy the stocks and homes of the babyboomers, and that no foreigners will do so either, at least not at current market clearing prices.

Any ideas would be welcomed.
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