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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 218.43+0.4%10:57 AM EST
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To: Petz who wrote (21074)11/29/2000 11:36:50 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Petz,

T-Bird is Dresden. Dresden was supposed to be starting 500 wpw in July with a 100%/Quarter acceleration rate for 2 quarters

According to Jerry's statement in early March 2000 (during the Q1 CC) AMD was at 500 wafer starts per week at that time. I extended the increase from there to 12/31/2001 linearly. This is what I got: 


07/01/2000 1300
10/01/2000 2000
average    1650


These would be wafer starts that will end up as CPU's to be sold in Q4. Here are my assumptions:

Die per wafer       214
Yield                70%
Good Die per wafer  150
Weeks                13
Wafers per week    1650


What I get is 3.2 million Athlons available for sale in Q4.

When did AMD claim they made (or sold) their 1st and 2nd millionth Dresden CPU? Based on my model, AMD should have made 1st millionth unit (including packaging) approximately fist half of September, 2 millionth unit in late October 2000.

Joe
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