Hi Bob.
As a professional engineer you appreciate that "design" and "procurement of materials" are fundamental steps in any construction project. You will also understand that BKP#2 facility design can not be finalized until the gas and liquid(s) production profile (ie. rate versus time) has been forecast. So, obviously, the well needs to be completed and production tested before the design can be advanced and appropriate materials (vessels, valves, fittings, seals, instrumentation, etc.) ordered.
When a well is production tested there is much much more to the actual test then simply opening a valve and measuring surface fluid flow rates over a short time period. Bottomhole pressure data is also collected during the flow period and for about two weeks following the well shut in. From that data the long term production performance can be projected for the well as can the production rate at various wellhead operating pressures \ reservoir drawdowns. Only with this information can surface facilities of proper capacity be designed. (Note that an optimum production tubing string for the well can also be determined with this data.)
As ELH facilities must necessarily be designed for uncommon operating conditions (unusually high pressure and temperature service) not all requisite materials are available off the shelf. Order lead times of 10-12 weeks will not be unusual for some items.
With the foregoing in mind, let's prepare a very rough yet aggressive schedule for first production from BKP#2:
Nov 30 -------- Circulate gas kicks and get mud\well under control.
Dec 1-10 ------ Deepen the well through 2nd Carneros, run final log suite, collect side wall cores, run RFT, land and cement 4-1/2" liner.
Dec 11-Jan 20 - Obtain completion approval from state authority, design\fabricate\procure tubing conveyed perforating gun, Xmas, complete well (clean out cement to TD, run correlation logs, land perforating gun, production packer, tubulars, install wellhead, etc.), and perforate.
Jan 21-27 ----- Flow test well.
Jan 28-Feb 10 - Monitor bottomhole reservoir pressure after shut in and retrieve pressure recorders.
Feb 10-20 ----- Analyze flow data.
Feb 21-28 ----- Finalize facility design and obtain JV approval.
Mar 1-May 15 -- Permitting, surveying, pipelining, lease preparation, footings and foundations, preliminary construction, and procurement of long lead items.
May 15-31 ----- Final construction and assembly, commissioning and testing.
June 1 -------- First production.
Bob, the above schedule is just my WAG. It totally ignores both Murphy's Law and the now famous RO3 !!!! It will certainly be inaccurate in many aspects !!!! But, hopefully it will help others realize that early January production from BKP#2 is not too realistic. Analysts and shareholders that project\expect cash flow from this well before June-July, 2001 will surely be disappointed. JMHOBWDIK.
Have a good one.
Later,
grayhairs |
