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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (5343)11/30/2000 12:55:44 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, November 29th:

Regular Series:

SPX Long - NOVA     422.8  Million
SPX Short- URSA     268.8  Million

NDX Long - OTC      2,086  BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos   116.0  Million

XAU Precious Metals 37.9   Million 
Biotechnology       570    Million
Money Market        1.418  BILLION

*********************************************

Dynamic Series (200% correlation)

SPX Long - TITAN    80.8   Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST  15.6   Million 

NDX Long - VELOCITY 98.6   Million
NDX Short- VENTURE  32.3   Million

*********************************************

Lookie what we have here. Now we are getting the early dogs out of the blocks with negative pre - pre-announcements that revenues are going to come up short in GTW, ALTR and GAP for the upcoming quarter. And a downside gap open tomorrow morning as sure as the light of day follows the night. I thought we would at least have one more week stay of execution from these pre-announcements - but corporations and wall street anal-ists are in a cover your @ss mode and want to get it out right away with any whiff of bad news or downgrades for fear of investor class action lawsuit hanging over their heads for lack of full or forthright disclosure.

Certainly we will get this capitulation in the morning; but we need to see what type of bounce materializes (healthy or dead cat)once the first panic wave of selling for the exits exhausts itself in the first hour or two. Ideally, massive volume on this morning downdraft with that grizzly Bear sh!tin all over the woods until it poops out. Selling dries up and the Bulls come in and pick up the pieces at the double discount day sale.

We need to see 300+ new lows in the NYSE and 800+ new lows in the Nasdaq to know capitulation is in the offing. I would like to see minimum 7 to 1 Decliners over advancers in the NYSE to confirm this hot and bothered selling wave is near completion.

Today, on the plus side of the equation, the DOW, SPX and BKX booked positive closings in a sea of red and even the NDX and COMP managed to trim mid-day losses to manageable levels. Key for me is BKX holding BKX 774 at the close. Today BKX closed at BKX 823.30 up 25 points. We have good elasticity and as long as we hold BKX 774, then SPX should hold above SPX 1,300 level. SPX closed up 6 to SPX 1,342. One close below BKX 774 and I will head for cover potentially into XAU which had a healthy pullback today. The economy is clearly slowing and the dollar has lost its luster - gold (xau) au contrare?

Still Long 50% SPX and NDX respectively.

Best Regards, J.T.
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