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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: ggamer who wrote (35699)11/30/2000 1:19:47 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
ggamer,

Thanks for the nod and thanks for posting that piece. When I first saw it I almost posted it myself. But I figure that I probably harp about the value of long-term investing so much that sometimes I come on too strong.

And at the risk of doing that ...

I disagree that Warren Buffet's biggest strength is his ability to project cash flow. Charlie Munger revealed that Buffet has never run a discounted cash flow in his life. Buffet acknowledge it. Why doesn't he run them? Because Buffet has the discipline to wait around until he finds a company that the price of the stock is so far below the net present value of the cash flow that there's no need to physically run the calculation. In summary, it's not Buffet's ability to determine the present value of the cash flow, it's the discipline that he is so selective that he has a huge margin of error in case he is wrong.

What if he is wrong?

That brings up an even more important strength. His investment philosophy is better than "long term buy and hold." His is "buy and hold forever." That adds even more margin for error.

--Mike Buckley
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