So I guess are board, has produced a possible high and low for the stock. Thomas Tam sees a bottom of between 30-36. Tinkershaw sees fair value at the other end, at 160, this would be the high of are range. Impristine, are token on the sidelines shorter, sees weakness still in the technology end of the story. The weakness he must be refering to, must be, in the chances, of Avanex's approache, to building out, an all optical network, of getting adopted, by the telecoms, on a big scale. For me, that is an area that needs further exploration. I started reading some technology nerd posts on the yahoo, Avanex message board. The little bit I got, so far, was that one nerd poster saw the territory, for who has the industry standard setting architecture, for the optical space, as a situation, still up for grabs.
All this leaves me cautious, and waiting for lower lows. However when the bottom comes, I won't load the boat, but will limit my buys, to less than, 3-4% of my total portfolio. This will leave me room, to increase my holdings, to the final 3-4%, as the stock gains traction, as it's sector, turns the corner, back to the glass half full perspective.
I won't be playing the option game on this one, but best of luck to those that do. I feel the real value, will come from focusing on a small long term hold. Small because of the risk factor, and you need to be able to put this one away forget about, for as long as 10 years, from Robert Dukes perspective. Thats how long it may take, for the potential of what this company has to offer, to be realized in the stock. |
