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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 210.78-4.8%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (21139)11/30/2000 12:11:49 PM
From: redbirdRead Replies (4) of 275872
 
Assumptions:
AMD has a 17% market share.
AMD expects to get a 30% market share
INTC has an 83% market share.
INTC expects to get a 85% market share
The market growth is slowing down, but the market is not shrinking.
INTC is priced based on current earning ($20) + future growth ($24).
AMD is priced base on movement in INTC (INTC * .5).
AMD's price does not take into account earnings or future growth.

The Current Market:
The market growth is slowing, so INTC's price goes down, so AMD's price goes down.

What I believe the market will wake up to:
AMD's earnings alone make it worth $27 ($2.50 EPS * 15 PE)
AMD is gaining market share, INTC is loosing market share.
AMD's future market share * future market value is greater than AMD's current market share * current market value (even if the market were shrinking).
AMD's price based on earnings ($27) + future growth ($33) is $60

Still holding. Considering buying some leap options now.
Redbird
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