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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: No Mo Mo who wrote (42437)11/30/2000 12:54:50 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
you are correct, the pressure is in fact building already. i wouldn't be surprised to see at least a bias change. but note, historically, the first Fed Funds cut has come a lot later into the slowdown (under the Greenjeans Fed). usually they cut for the first time after consumer confidence has taken a huge dive, and unemployment has risen by at least 2 percentage points. this is NOT the 70's Fed. if they were to follow that script, you'd see energy prices, and commodity prices in general, exploding, and confidence in the dollar undermined. it's really not that easy. i think also that Greenspud may be very worried about the perception that he's the grand-daddy of moral hazard. the best way to dispel that perception is to stay tough. one more thing: there's a tendency to get the bitter medicine over with in the early part of a new administration.
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