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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: horsegirl48 who wrote (21074)11/30/2000 1:11:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 65232
 
Fed tightening, Election morass, Economic slowdown

when they each clear up:
Fed -- might go neutral in midDec
might cut rates then, but doubtful
could cut at end of January
definitely cut by April

Election -- US SupCt wont end it Monday-Tuesday
the lawuits now resemble a fraternity clusterfark
failed Contest by Gore will be appealed
FL Legislature might appoint Repub Electors
if so, Gore will sue the FL SupCt
Contest appeal might take 2-4 weeks
Electoral College vote might be delayed from midDec
US Congress might decide vote finally

Economy -- Fed wants 1% inflation, 4% unemploymt, 2.5% growth
warnings of more earnings reductions will happen soon
we are entering soon the Q4 warnings period
Gateway and Altera is just the start
earnings may come down considerably in Q1 next year
the economic bottom may not be until March-June timeframe
with Fed thumbs up their asses, tightening is weekly force
inflation is nonexistent, thus interest rates have high real force

more margin calls tomorrow, with forced selling
am I missing anything?
yes, my money
Keith, take satisfaction
/ jim
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