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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 346.30

-4.1%

Jan 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: SpecialK who wrote (162)	11/30/2000 7:00:43 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95823

SK, As of tonite, I checked the latest numbers for AMAT from the Zack's database. Their consensus earnings for next year is listed at 3.62. This is even higher than the 3.49 listed by First Call. Zacks has the 5 year growth rate listed at 25.17. As a matter of fact, for the group of 33 stocks, the listed 5 year growth rates run all the way from 17.63 for SVGI to 34 for LTXX. Getting back to AMAT, using the Zacks data, with a close price of 40.44, next years PE is 11. The PE/G is 0.44. Now if we use one rule of thumb that some people accept, which a stock price of close to a PE/G of 1 - then AMAT to be fairly priced would be around 90. I think a good argument could be made that is a conservative number and could be substantially higher. Don W.

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